russia china america triangle
russia china america triangle
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The Evolving Dynamics of US-Russia-China Relations: Strategic Alignment and Competing Interests (2025/03/02)
Summary
This analysis examines the complex trilateral relationship between the United States, Russia, and China as of early 2025, drawing from three expert analyses. The content reveals a geopolitical landscape where China and Russia maintain a strategic partnership driven primarily by their mutual opposition to US hegemony, though this relationship contains underlying tensions and vulnerabilities. Key developments include Putin's May 2024 visit to China, Trump's tilt toward Russia following his return to office, and the implications for global power dynamics, particularly regarding Ukraine. The sources suggest that while the China-Russia partnership appears strong on the surface, it is characterized by mutual skepticism and could potentially be vulnerable to disruption as both nations calculate their economic and strategic interests.
Key Aspects of the China-Russia Relationship
Strategic Alignment: China views its relationship with Russia primarily through the lens of its competition with the United States. This was evident in their May 2024 joint communiqué where China, for the first time, openly criticized Washington in a statement with Russia.
Economic Interdependence: Russia has become increasingly important to China's economy, overtaking Saudi Arabia as China's largest oil supplier in 2023. Russia also serves as a market for Chinese high-end manufacturing products amid Western "de-risking" efforts.
Diplomatic Framing: The relationship is characterized as being based on a "confluence of interests" rather than the earlier "no limits" partnership, suggesting some recalibration by Beijing.
Mutual Concerns: According to Filter Labs research, both sides harbor doubts about the relationship:
Chinese doubts center on Russia's economic resilience, military strength, and long-term intentions
Russian doubts focus on the quality of Chinese goods, China's military commitment to Russia, and the substantiality of Chinese investments
The Trump Factor
Trump's approach to Russia represents a significant shift in US policy, with his administration adopting a more transactional, deal-making approach that seems to prioritize relations with Russia over support for Ukraine.
The administration's rhetoric on Ukraine echoes China's earlier position, referring to the war merely as a "conflict" and promoting peace through negotiations with Russia - a stance China has advocated since February 2023.
Trump appears to be attempting a "reverse Kissinger" strategy - trying to pull Russia away from China, opposite to Kissinger's historic opening to China that was aimed at isolating the Soviet Union.
However, experts like Professor Feng Yujun of Peking University suggest that fears of a genuine US-Russia reconciliation are overstated due to structural contradictions and historical mistrust.
Implications for Ukraine and Global Politics
Both the US under Trump and China are effectively pushing Ukraine back into Russia's sphere of influence, though through different approaches.
Ukraine finds itself excluded from decisions about its future, similar to China's experience at the 1945 Yalta Conference where its fate was decided without its participation.
Chinese peacebuilding efforts, including its "Friends of Peace" group that includes Global South nations, may gain new relevance as transatlantic unity faces strains under Trump's policies.
This shifting landscape presents China with an opportunity to improve relations with Europe, as indicated by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's more effective diplomatic performance at the 2025 Munich Security Conference.
Future Trajectory
Despite Trump's attempts to weaken Sino-Russian ties, a true split remains unlikely given deep-rooted mutual distrust of the United States.
Economic sanctions remain a significant potential friction point between Russia and China, with Chinese netizens increasingly concerned about the impact secondary US sanctions could have on China.
The Filter Labs report suggests the US and its allies could potentially exploit vulnerabilities in the Russia-China relationship to drive a wedge between them.
For Ukraine, its resilience remains its strongest asset despite being sidelined in key decisions about its future, while Europe increasingly recognizes that the war is fundamentally a European issue.
The sources indicate that while the China-Russia partnership continues to deepen in many respects, it contains significant vulnerabilities and is fundamentally shaped by both nations' calculations of their respective interests vis-à-vis the United States and the broader international order.
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